What candidate is most likely to drop out before Florida primary?

Presidential primary history tells us that there is little chance that the all seven of the remaining Republican candidates running for the White House will make it to Florida?s Jan. 31 presidential primary.

In 2008, the much-hyped Fred Thompson, a former U.S. Senator from Tennessee, flamed out a week before Florida?s primary after finishing well back in South Carolina?s pivotal primary. And lesser known long shot Duncan Hunter packed it in after finishing dead last in the Nevada caucus before Florida voted.

That knocked the Republican field from eight to six candidates by the time the GOP rolled into the Sunshine state. Rudy Giuliani?s Florida or bust strategy came to an inglorious end after his disappointing finish here.

So who are the candidates most likely to be gone by the time Florida votes this time?

Here?s my list, ranked from most likely to least likely to drop out before Florida Republicans go to the polls on Jan. 31.

1. Rick Santorum: The former Pennsylvania senator has everything riding on Iowa. He?s got at least 13 paid staffers in Iowa, according to Campaigns & Elections magazine. That?s more than any of the other contenders.

Santorum is trying to tap the Evangelical base that helped deliver Iowa to surprise 2008 caucus winner Mike Huckabee. If Santorum does not finish in the top three in Iowa, he may not have the money to get much further.

And the polls don?t look good for him. Most of the polls coming out of Iowa have him still in the single digits, battling to stay out of last place with Jon Huntsman.

2. Jon Huntsman: While Santorum has everything riding on Iowa, the former Utah governor has his fate dependent on New Hampshire. Huntsman has 13 paid staffers in the Granite State, and has his national headquarters there. No other candidates have more than 10 paid staffers.

Huntsman needs a big showing in New Hampshire, yet polls show he is still struggling to break through. Most polls in New Hampshire this month show he?s hovering in fourth place.

3. Michele Bachmann: The Minnesota Congresswoman is close to being in the same position as Santorum, but has been polling better in Iowa since the summer. She has to do well because she barely has a pulse in New Hampshire where her entire staff quit earlier in the fall.

4. Rick Perry: The Texas governor is most resembling of Thompson from 2008. If Perry cannot crack top three in Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina, he?s likely toast. The polls right now suggest that it is very likely he will finish out of top three in all three of them.

The one thing that could keep him in longer is that he?s had more money in his campaign account than most of the other candidates. That could give him the ability to weather poor showings in Iowa and New Hampshire better than other candidates.

Source: http://htpolitics.com/2011/12/23/who%E2%80%99s-most-likely-to-drop-out-of-gop-primary-before-florida/

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