Saturday, December 1, 2012

Fundamental analysis 29 November 2012 | Inside Forex trading

On Wednesday the first part of trading session may be characterized by risk-aversion. The dollar was rising against the European opponents and decreasing against the yen when there is increasing fear of probable tax rise and expenses reduction in the USA. The market was informed that negotiations on prevention of budget cliff don?t move forward in the USA. Moreover, it seems that there is still much skepticism concerning the decision about Greek aid tranche, as it must be approved in many other EU countries. Nevertheless, the dollar didn?t managed to hold its achievements. The mood suddenly changed in American trading session as a result of the US President?s speech optimism, which announced that more and more Republicans agree with the necessity to make reasonable decisions on the budget, and he said that it may be possible to solve the problem of tax and expenses till Christmas. Some representatives of Republican Party also brought optimism, as they expressed their readiness to come to an agreement about revenue if the expenses are cut. As a rose result the dollar ended the trading day on the starting prices against the euro and pound, but it lost less against the yen in comparison with losses during the trading session. There were a few economic data ? according to the statistics the number of new home buyers reduced in October, the index decreased by? 0.3% m/m, to 368 thousand houses? when it was expected 385 thousands. The FRS report ?Beige Book? has optimistic indicators ? most of 12 FRS districts were marked by increase in consumer spending, but production was mentioned as weakened. Today news will present more information. It is expected to come out the unemployment insurance appeal data for the last week. It is expected to decrease to 395 thousands from? 410 thousands, and also data about incomplete house buying transactions for October, which may increase by 1.0%after +0.3%. the most important event will be a publication of the US GDP growth rate for the 3rd quarter . According to the forecasts the main economic indicator may be changed , it may increase to +2.8% from +2.0% stated bore. This fact may become the factor of influence and cause market volatility.

EUR

The unified currency trading was various during the last trading session. Fear that Greece will not get the aid tranche because it was not approved in all EU countries and a high probability of fiscal cliff in the USA caused risk-aversion. The situation was changed after the information from the USA about positive mood of two opposite sides which are ready to come to an agreement about the budget issue. The economic data of Europe was also positive for the unified currency ? consumer price inflation slowed down in Germany in November to 1.9% per annum from 2.0% in October, and price pressure decreased by 0.1% per month, when a month ago it was without changes. It might add confidence that the ECM will not reduce the rates as there are no reasons for this. According to the statistics money supply in euro zone also increased. M3 aggregate increased by 1.2% in October after it decreased by 0.3% in September, it fixed +3.6% per annum after +2,6% in September. Today news package will inform about business mood data of the European Commission for November. According to forecasts business mood may decrease to? 84.2from 84.5, production may increase? -17.5 after -18.0, and the consumer confidence index may continue to fall to ? 26.9 after -25.7 before. German unemployment rate data will be also of grate interest. It is expected that the number of unemployed increased by 15 thousands, and the rate remains? 6.8%

GBP

The British pound was trading under the influence of common market mood. And as the euro it decreased against the dollar at first, but then it recovered its losses and ended the trading day on the starting prices. British economic data was not planned to come out . Nevertheless, it appeared earlier. The Bank of England informed about crediting. This information was planned to be published on Thursday. According to the report, ? -? the number of new approved home buyer loans? increased to 53.0 thousands in October after 50. 4 a month before., when mortgage crediting is worse-than-expected, it mounts 199 million pounds, when it was 600 millions in September. According to forecasts it should be? million pounds.? Consumer loans decreased by 257 million pounds. It seems that the program of debt financing implemented by the ??? hasn?t been effective yet. This fact may disappoint the market. The Nationwide Report published today may confirm weak crediting may influence housing market. A house price index decreased in November according to annual statistics and fixed 0.0% m/m and -1.2% y/y? after 0.6% m/m ,? -0.9% y/y before. Today, but later, money supply data and the retail trade report of the British Manufactures Confederation? for November will be published. It seems that the Bank of England report about financial stability and speech of its governor M. King will draw much attention be of great interest in the current session. If it informs about further quantitative easing by the Central Bank, it may cause the pound falling.

JPY

Increased interest in the yen as the shelter-currency and the US bonds decrease supports the Japanese currency in the first part of last? trading session.? Fixed income under the circumstances of uncertainty also contributed to the yen growth after constant decreasing of this currency during the last weeks. Thus, according to the information from the USA positive decision optimism concerning the US budget pressured on the Japanese currency and forced all currency pairs which involve the yen to return to the starting prices. Japanese economic data published today demonstrate remaining unsuccessful process. The retail trade indexes continued to decrease in October and fixed? -1.2% y/y after 0.4% y/y , when decrease only by ? 0.7% y/y was expected. Concerning the perspectives, it seems that Japanese currency will be under the influence of information which cause risk seeking, but it will not demonstrate much volatility and continue its trading in narrow corridor? at the threshold of the Land of the Rising Sun.

Source: http://blog.forex4you.com/fundamental-analysis-29-november-2012/

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